WEBVTT

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The pain and trade, so many people have talked

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about it, is the pain trade still, equity

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higher and leadership a whole lot narrower. Hi John

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, yeah, I think it is. I mean

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, I think when we're we're certainly when we're looking

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at the economic backdrop, and you're right, things

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have improved from April, but when you're comparing it

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to January, you've seen economic growth downgrades, you've

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seen inflation forecasts being pushed up, you've got tariffs

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ultimately ending up at a higher level than when they

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started the year. So does it really make sense

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for equities to be hitting new record highs? I

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think so I think that is a pain trade for

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the next 3 months. I think if you're looking

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out over a 12 month period, actually, I

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think that things can be a little bit more constructive

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. So if you're taking a long term view,

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then certainly being risk gone, but in the near

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term, I do think there's a couple of potholes

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, bit of volatility to come. As Seema,

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take that 12 month rolling view of things of the

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world. Why do you think things improve 12 months

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out? Well, I think generally, look,

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we, we have got some concerns about the labor

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market cracking, but we're not seeing many signs from

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either large businesses or even small businesses that they're planning

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to introduce major job cuts. Um, we do

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think the Federal Reserve will eventually start to to cut

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rates. The general picture is one of a fairly

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, you know, modest growth world, but you

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just need modest growth in earnings to have in order

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to have earnings growth, and therefore to push up

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risk markets. So I think overall, it's a

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fairly constructive outlook. It's just not as constructive as

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maybe you had in 2024 or 203.