but let's turn back to the major indexes very strong
day on Wall Street gains across the board. The
tech heavy NASDAQ outperforming after comments from the central bank
vice chair. Little Bernard a warning of risks of
tightening too quickly joining me now is Sylvia, Jablonski
, co founder and ceo of defiance. CTF Sylvia
always good to see you. What do you make
of the market action? Hi, thanks so much
for having me. It's, it's really interesting actually
. I think that, you know, the reaction
to the Jackson Hole comments versus the reaction to today's
comments is just strikingly different, right? But,
but the message isn't super different. You know what
my, my take on this is that perhaps the
market and investors have come to a place where,
you know, we're starting to see good news,
we, we think that, you know, inflation
data has speak that it's coming down, um,
durables coming down a little bit of oil and gas
is, is coming down quite a lot, rental
cars are coming down. Somebody's, you know,
you know, inflationary areas of the market are really
starting to come down that last jobs read, you
know, you got 315,000 back wages, wage growth
seems to be waiting a little bit. So,
you know, now we can sort of say,
okay, well if we get 75 now that puts
them above 3% you know, if you, if
you look at what treasuries are telling us that feels
like they're pretty close to being done granted they're going
to stay there and they're going to unwind the balance
sheet and all of that will continue to bring inflation
down to, so maybe this is viewed as okay
, maybe we're at the end of this and,
and that's what got us the rally today. So
where do we go from here? I think a
lot of people wondering september historically is a lower month
. More often than not stops actually declined in the
month of september and amid some of these warnings from
other fed heads, right, will we retest those
mid june lows? What do you think? I
think, you know, my, my take on
this is that, you know, I don't think
will necessarily go lower than the lows. Will we
retest them? I mean, you know, we
got dangerously close or certainly close enough on NASDAQ and
Smp is sort of right back to that 50 day
moving average a little bit below. So my sense
of this is that the market has done a lot
of work, a lot of the fraud has been
taken off. You know, the kind of pullback
was broad based and then the june um, the
, you know, the june lows were broad based
and then, you know, the kind of bounce
that we saw in, in july was actually pretty
broad based too. So I do think that we're
in for some volatility, we're in for some risk
of pulling back, we're in for some risk for
price declines in, in, you know, various
sectors and whatnot. But overall, I think we're
gonna have sort of range bound training in september,
you know, 60% of the time. It's a
terrible month. It sort of is what it is
, october is that flipped? Right? So maybe
october sort of when we see the rebound, when
the Fed is done and then we get news that
, okay, let's hang out here at this rate
and and see what happens with equities. I still
think that this is a good time to buy though
for long term investors, I do think we'll be
in a better spot 18 months out and for viewers
watching, what does long term mean? Sylvia,
are we talking 3 to 5 years or even longer
time horizon than that? You know, I I
do think that buying, you know, broadway s
and P 500 exposure, NASDAQ exposure and what not
will play out in the next, let's say,
you know, 18 to 24 months, I expect
to be at higher levels in these indices in these
positions than we're at now. Um, but if
you look out even longer and you think about an
area like semiconductors for example, you have like no
vidia and M. D. And intel and some
of these names that have just gotten absolutely clobbered,
you have government money going there, you know,
50 billion going towards manufacturing, you have this massive
growth and innovation the next decade is going to be
about five G electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, you
need ships for all of those things to work and
happen. So for me that's like the 5 to
10 year trade interesting now what about Apple? Because
there is the famous saying as goes Apple, so
goes the market, we got a big product suite
announced today, the iphone 14, 4 versions of
them, this new Apple watch as well, much
more expensive one to compete with government and then some
IOS updates as well. Do you think the indication
is that the affluent customer is still willing to spend
Sylvia when it comes to Apple and that Apple could
be almost an anchor for the stock market into the
end of the year. I do. I'm always
a huge, you know fan of Apple and it's
a position that I, you know, never race
for my portfolio position that I continue to pick up
when the market pulls back. I just think that
they're touching every single corner. So they're growing in
services, you know, they're growing in in sort
of the health care space with the watch and the
application. They're uh, they're doing great on products
and, and iphone demands. You've had a lot
of issues, there's a lot of headwinds between Covid
, you know, china shutdowns, obviously inflation rates
and things like that. But their cash cow,
you know, 30% margins, I mean they are
just continuing to grow and their numbers, even the
worst expected numbers get, you know, sort of
crushed every time they report? So I'm very bullish
on this company. I consider them quality at the
price of their trading. Now I look at this
as a bargain, a bargain for Apple. I
know you like chip stocks as well. Sylvia,
any other sectors that you think might be a buying
opportunity here and conversely sectors that you'd be staying away
from at these levels. I would be looking at
some of these alternative energy types of trades. So
whether it's hydrogen, whether it's solar, you know
, there's going, there's this big focus in the
next decade on um carbon neutral by, you know
, by 2050 you've got a lot of the climate
bill going towards things like hydrogen electric vehicles. So
, you know, you can look at your Tesla
, you can look at your plug power's your Ballard's
some of the E. T. S in that
space. I think that they're going to be interesting
opportunities in terms of what I'm not looking at.
You know, that would be sort of the higher
the higher growth names that just worked in a different
time. And I think, you know, I
hate kind of calling them out, but I'm not
really looking to invest in peloton right now. I'm
not looking to invest in zoom right now. Those
are kind of off my radar, some of the
stay at home. Staffs maybe not so keen there
Sylvia. I'm just curious in terms of the Fed's
next rate move based on what we heard from lily
Bernard today but also what we've been hearing from other
Fed heads. Are you expecting another 75 basis point
rate rise come the next decision september 21st. I
I think the market is pricing that in um you
know, I I think that it would be unlikely
to be higher than that. There's there's a chance
perhaps that they go 50 and then another 25.
But I I suspect that just given sort of the
the force and strength and and how emboldened Fed chair
Powell was in Jackson Hole. You know my my
my lead would probably match the market estimate of of
75 on that. And the data I mean the
data is supply that you know they are kind of
doing their job and inflation is coming down and that
this is working so it feels like this should be
the last of the higher side of rates but remains
to be seen. Yeah, still the Fed of
course maintaining that its data dependent. We'll see how
the data shakes out. Sylvia Jablonski co founder and
ceo defiance CTF Sylvia. Good to see you and 00:07:03.644 --> thanks