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Anastasia, you were talking about keeping the fed funds

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rate around 5.5% for a prolonged period of time.

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Our guest sitting on set is slightly shaking his head

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, Bob Michael. I know he looks for a

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potential cut by the end of this year in the

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face of weakness. How much do you push back

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against that? Do you think that the fed could

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hold rates at about 5.5% well into next year?

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Well, I think if the economy is still on

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solid footing and we're not looking at a recession,

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that's exactly what the Fed wants to do. They

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just want to stay there for a prolonged period of

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time to make sure that inflation does come down towards

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, let's say 2.5%. Look, I don't think

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we have a perfect crystal ball on when this recession

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ultimately is going to materialize. But if I just

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look at the real rates and if I look at

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the forecast of real rates, we're likely to get

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towards 2% real rate given the forecast that we have

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today at some point in 2024. And if you

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compare that 2% restrict no real rate. That's,

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that's sometime in 2024 you compare that to the neutral

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rate that the New York Federal Reserve says it's somewhere

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around one. It's likely to Clyde 2.9 0.7% at

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some point. Tom, we do get into that

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restrictive territory, but I think that's, that point

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is still out in 2024.