Is it just our imagination or is there a shift
going on right now in the relative balance between labor
and management? I think there really is a shift
going on and it's a function of uh labor having
a bit more power right now, the labor market
is tight. And so that always gives labor unions
more power. But I also think there's something within
the labor movement, there's been more organizing, more
activism towards strikes. And so all these things are
combining to give labor some more power than it's had
for a while. So you pointed out that the
labor market has been tight. We are starting to
get a little bit of indication. Maybe there's some
loosen. The jolt's numbers this week were a little
bit looser than expected. Sooner or later, the
labor market will adjust itself, I assume. And
so the question is what will be left if anything
of this shift at that point? Or is this
just a relatively short cycle? We always see the
ups and downs of the labor market. There is
a cyclicality to it over time and that affects labor's
baring power. Um But I do think there could
be some lasting effects of this period. Uh,
labor is catching up after having fallen behind for a
period. So I think they are looking to use
the power they have right now to lock in some
gains to really catch up to where they fell behind
for quite a while, particularly on issues like wages
. Well, I was going to ask exactly about
that. What are the big issues if there are
big issues that cut across some of these industries?
We have seen the US situation with UAW. We've
got the DG as well as a a. Are
there common factors across all or are they pretty much
idiosyncratic? So certainly the wages issue does cut across
the basic economic issues. And that's sort of a
return to something that we saw a lot further in
the past, there was a lot of wage gains
for a while. There was more focus on benefits
and bargaining, but wages have really come back.
Uh Certainly during the higher inflation period, wages became
more front and center. I, I do think
there's a few other things going on across different industries
, technology matters. Uh A I as a threat
to the writers and screen actors is an example of
that uh the electric battery expansion that we're seeing in
the auto industry as an example of that industry of
technology changing things. So I think that's a common
theme we're seeing as well. I was going to
ask about technology specifically, as you say A I
with respect to the writers and then we have EVs
with respect to the car companies. Have, we
had other instances in history. As you go back
where the both sides labor and management notes, there's
going to be a fundamental shift. It's hard to
know on this. How do you provide for that
in a collective bargaining agreement? Absolutely. We have
seen over the course of labor history, that technology
and changes and how it affects work have been one
of the real central drivers of change and it can
change it in perhaps unexpected ways. One of the
most famous things was in the mining industry, the
president of the mine workers union back in the forties
and fifties made a conscious decision that technology was going
to take away a lot of jobs. But what
they were going to do was bargain for higher wages
. So there'd be fewer workers but they'd be paid
better. Um, and so labor has choices to
make about how they're going to adjust to technological change
. I wonder if labor also has to think about
at least the possibility of I'll put it this way
, killing the golden goose that the gold, the
goose that led the golden egg because we are not
that far past the time in the auto industry where
we're looking at bankruptcy for two of the majors,
maybe Ford would have followed. At some point,
the union have to really take into account if they
push too hard, too fast, they could drive
the auto companies to bankruptcy again. Well, the
, the auto unions absolutely need to come up with
a deal that does help ensure the future of the
American auto companies. And, and we've seen this
story before we go back to the eighties when Honda
Toyota, the Japanese car companies were really taking it
to the American automakers through more fuel efficient, higher
quality vehicles. And the American companies had to respond
to protect what jobs they could and to be a
significant part of the industry, I do think is
a real danger again. Right now with the transition
to electrical vehicles, the American unionized automakers need to
make sure that they're in a position where they can
be on the forefront of this. The UAW wants
to be part of it. They want their members
to be making those cars, making those batteries,
but they have to come up with a deal that
lets them both work together on this. We've seen
a long term trend away from organized labor specifically in
the private sector. Do you think some of the
factors with this technology or otherwise might turn that around
to some extent? I think there's a possibility.
Um, you know, I think it's definitely not
determined that we'll see a turn around, but there
is a possibility that the thing that jumps out to
me is that there's been a shift in attitudes around
unions, more favorable views of unions, particularly amongst
younger workers. Um And there's a recent poll showing
over 80% of them have favorable views of unions.
And I think that's been reflected in things like organizing
. We're seeing at Starbucks, uh that is a
representation of a shift in attitudes of younger workers that
could have a long lasting impact. And finally,
I wonder about the role if there is one of
the government, we've heard repeatedly from President Biden that
he wants to be known as the most pro union
president in American history. And we'll see whether he
goes down that way or not. But in taking
that position, could that to some extent, make
it more difficult to come to terms because he's really
getting the hopes of, for example, the UAW
up. I mean, I think he certainly is
getting the hopes up. He's setting down that of
saying that, you know, I am in favor
of unions and I think that's important. He's certainly
the most rhetorically supportive of unions since FDR as to
whether that will backfire in some sense. I'm not
sure it will. We certainly saw last year with
the railroad threatened strike that Biden seems to take a
balanced approach as well as being pro union. He
does believe in collective bargain, reaching a deal.
So, you know, I think there's still opportunities
for cooperation and reaching deals.