kelly, what did you make of what Katie was
saying there, We have the potentially recession indicator flashing
a warning right now, but stocks continue to grind
higher. What do you make of it? Yeah
. So everyone, everybody's watching the bond market these
days and you know, a lot of people are
saying the bond market is worried, I would call
it a little more confused. So yes, the
five year, 30 year uh, spread inverted earlier
today. And you know, everybody's watching the to
10 spread as well. That spread between the two
year and 10 year yields. That's almost like the
mainstream, which is, which is the more important
one we should be keeping an eye on. Oh
, I'm gonna throw you a curveball. We are
watching the three months, 10 year spread. So
of course we're watching this. I know, I
know of course we're watching the to 10 because everybody
else is watching that and if the 2 10 ends
up inverting, it's going to be kind of tough
to digest in the stock market. But the three
month tenure indicator is the one that really shows the
amount of near term stress versus you know, the
confidence in the economic outlook that you see in longer
term yields and historically it's been better, a better
near term recession indicator. Okay, callie. So
three month tenure, that's an interesting curve because it
actually has been steepening. That's another disconnect of the
disconnect within the bond market. But let's talk about
the 2 10 curve because it's a 13 basis points
, it's getting very close to inversion and like you
said when that happened, you are going to see
some anxiety in the stock market? So how do
you prepare for that if at all, I mean
, do you go into more defensive sectors? Yeah
. So I think it depends on your time frames
and I know that's a very vanilla answer. But
if you're a short term investor, there may be
some opportunity here. I mean, if you're expecting
stock market volatility, of course you want to head
yourselves a little bit, especially if you have those
short term goals. But if you're looking for opportunity
, you know, that's why we really like a
barbell here of cyclicals and big tech and the yield
curve inversion really speaks to the big tech side of
that. You know, we're in a period of
high growth right now. I know it doesn't feel
like it, but we are. Um, but
at the same time there's a lot of worries about
low growth out there and the yield curve inversion,
especially in the to 10 spread falls on the other
side of it. But if you're a long term
investor, I mean, hey, it's just a
speed bump on your journey. Well, let's talk
a little bit about that because you argue in your
most recent note, callie, that main street actually
has an edge versus Wall street here and it's not
something that we oftentimes hear, we oftentimes hear that
, hey, you don't have the same tools as
the big guys out there. Why do you make
that argument? Yeah. Well let me tell you
one tool that the everyday investor has, but the
pro doesn't, it's time and it's so, so
important right now, especially with the short term outlook
being so hazy. But the long term outlook,
we're thinking years down the road. I mean looking
especially promising. We're in an era of innovation right
now. I mean retail investors have time on their
side. They can step in and buy the dip
here. Um, if they have a longer timeframe
than many of them do, okay, kelly.
I wanted to kind of go, I'm from California
. Yeah, we know originally and I saw some
tweets from you late friday that actually sent to Katie
while I was on my commute home and it was
about getting your investing mojo back. It has a
lot to do with sentiment here. And I want
you to really take us into why you ended up
sending that thread and, and really what you saw
when it came to the way that investors perhaps on
the platform and off the tutorial platform or at least
feeling when it comes to markets right now because sentiment
is so important for us to keep an eye on
Yeah, it's so, so important. Especially when
it comes to your own investing journey in your own
portfolio. I mean we can talk for days about
what to buy and sell and where the market is
going, but it doesn't matter unless you can make
the right decisions and confidently step in and do the
right thing for your portfolio. I think a lot
about that, especially dealing with retail investors who have
a lot of emotions and you know, it's their
money. They're not investing other people's money. It's
, it's their own money. So, um,
you know, I talk a lot about confidence and
these days, I'm really thinking about how to boost
your confidence. You know, remembering your why thinking
about the runway you have when you make some big
investments, thinking about the risks that you're taking and
really checking the blind spots in your portfolio, making
sure your portfolio can handle it. If we see
a selloff in one asset tim quick question. What
was the California link there? I'm curious. I
don't know. It just had to do with it
just had to do with confidence. It was like
a friday, it was a friday afternoon. I
was on my way home and I think when it
comes to the conversations that we have a lot about
markets, We talked about macro a lot. We
talk about the macroeconomic environment. We talked about interest
rates and we don't often talk about the way the
California actually feeling about this stuff and the way that
our own feelings have to do with how we choose
our investments and what Callie's and I will call it
a note because it was a pretty long thread that
really struck me about it, Callie. Okay,
so the vibes, if you will. Yeah,
that's a good way to put it. Yeah,
Vibes are important. Cali is always on top of
the vibes. That is it. Toro investment analysts
, Calli cox. It is awesome to have you
come back soon.