But let's turn back to the major indexes for now
, a day of gains ending near session highs for
the major indexes still down on the year, still
a cloudy picture. But I do want to bring
in our markets Guest Barbara, Duran Ceo and chief
investment officer of BD eight Capital Partners Barbara. It's
good to see you what is your reaction to the
market today despite a record high print on producer prices
. Well that that is very interesting because it was
not only the P. P. I. Today
which is a record and double digit, but the
day before the C. P. I. Number
was not any small thing either. But I think
the market is telling us today to a couple things
to note one. The breadth was amazing. It
was across pretty much every sector And the volume in
terms of volume was about 80% to the upside.
The vix has calmed down as we all know,
that's a measure of the volatility, tells you something
about the risk on risk off appetite. So today
was very constructive and in fact the last few days
if you look at the typical stock it actually they
did better than the indexes show. So I think
the market is telling us some very important things inflation
, we're very aware of it somewhere in here is
peak inflation, whether it's this month or next month
, but you're already starting to see signs, you
know, with freight pricing a little softer used cars
, which I think we're all aware of in terms
of what's happened there last year. Used car prices
were up some 40 to 43% year every year but
the first quarter they are softening so there's all sorts
of little signs that things are maybe peaking and certainly
in the C. P. I. Number the
day before when you look at core it came in
lower than expected. Which is you know, not
reason to celebrate yet but it's reason reason to think
maybe you know, some good things are happening.
So I think the market is really discounting um peak
inflation here, interesting barbara can inflation come down as
the Fed raises rates in a scenario that we avoid
a recession. I think that's a big concern for
investors and many americans right now will this economy go
into a recession with still some unresolved headwinds, notably
the war in eastern europe. Yeah. Kristen you're
so right. The Ukraine is a big wild card
. You know, we know it's going to have
an impact and is having an impact on energy prices
, you know, on food prices because of the
breadbasket, the wheat that they produce and other things
like that. But I think that um Inflation is
certainly is should be is a factor but will be
I think somewhat controlled and I think it's going to
stay higher I mean, but nobody expected it,
you know, maybe some people do, but nobody
expected to stay this high this long so it's not
going to go back to 2% anytime soon. But
just remember we are at almost full employment. The
unemployment rate is down to 3.6%. It was 3.5
pre covid wages are going up, consumers got their
balance sheets, uh, their balance sheets in shape
. And also that was what was interesting with Jamie
Dimon's comments this morning on Jpmorgan. Yes, their
profits were down big, but they had, that
was very much business specific to them in terms of
lack of I. P. O. S.
You know, financing fees For investment banking, all
that. But when he talked about, he said
, look, the economy is strong and we are
seeing it in the consumer numbers, credit card spending
is up 29%. And what's interesting too is travel
and leisure spending up 64%. That's what you saw
reflected in delta this morning, where they talked about
explosive demand when you and Ken talked about it earlier
. Here's another question for you, Barbara, I
just, I do want to ask these banks right
. I mean, I think the banks are a
good indicator as to whether or not we could be
headed Toward a recession and profits down some 42% for
Jpmorgan I think that is a bit of an eyesore
after investors have been funneling money into these banks,
certainly toward the end of last year, our banks
of sector as the chief investment officer that you'd stay
away from or is the dip perhaps a buying opportunity
here. Yeah, Christian, that's a great question
because people are looking at Jpmorgan for instance, it's
down 16, year to date. It normally sells
it more than two times book because it is a
premier bank. But it's now 1.5. But the
fact is they're not immune, you know, to
the business market forces within their business. So I
think if you're going to, if you want to
be in the banks and there's a lot of strategists
out there saying you should have financial waiting. You
really want to go to the much more interest sensitive
because that was a really strong area for them.
You know, the net interest margins, the net
interest income. And so banks like Wells Fargo or
Bank America, some of the regional banks who have
much more interest rate sensitivity will do much better because
they can make a lot of money on the spread
the money they borrow to loan out to customers.
So yeah, I think you have to be much
more selective at this point. And Jpmorgan I think
I'd wait a bit. Yeah. Yeah. Clearly
based on those comments that we got from Jamie Diamond
with that uncertainty that he noted there. Barbara I
want you to stick with us. We do have
some breaking news rent the runway out with its earnings
report after hours since the market's closed. And that
stopped getting 4% on the session after rising at nearly
7% during the actual trading day. So the after
hours gain is a gain of about 4% After a
better than expected report, the company lost 62 cents
a share in this latest quarter, but that was
better than the 70 cent loss that Wall Street expected
. We do see that revenue beat as well,
61 64.1 million. The revenue estimate was 63.2
million. And the company providing positive guidance full year
revenue guidance that certainly exceeds Wall Street's expectation rent the
runway expecting full year revenue of anywhere between 295 million
to 305 million. And Wall Street's estimate was just
202.5 million. So clearly outperforming on a full year
basis. The company also providing Current quarter guidance expecting
revenue between 63.5 million to 64.5 million. And that
basically sandwiches the Wall Street expectation of 64.3 million.
So Active subscribers did rise 110% from the same time
a year ago coming off extremely, low comparables Ending
the quarter with active subscribers of 115,240. So generally
a pretty strong report here and that stocks are continuing
to rise in the after hours Barbara. I hope
you're still with us. I'd love to get your
take on this of course, an economic story.
A reopened story as well. What's your reaction to
rent the runway's results? Yeah, christian you're exactly
right. And but it's also a secular growth story
because they do occupy a unique niche. They did
identify an important need is you just said yourself and
I like that idea. You didn't get a different
dress for every different appearance. You know, the
key thing because they really had a great quarter right
after their I. P. O. They just
I P O. As we know in october And
the last quarter, subscription growth was strong. Revenue
growth was strong. So we really wanted to see
if that trend was continuing and they really blew away
the numbers in terms of subscription growth. I think
you said 110% the revenue and earnings were stronger than
the street expected. So, and I want to
hear more, you know, and they do their
conference call in terms of the guidance. But because
the the The challenge for this company is that most
analysts out there think they will not make money until
2025. So it's really can they accelerate that can
they cut their costs? And so that's and they
have a lot of initiatives in that regard. And
it's interesting that you said about, you know,
they were killed in cold because who could go out
. But their mix has changed interestingly enough, it's
now about 25% evening where 25% business wear and 50%
casual, which is really a reflection of differing uh
you know trends here. You know, post covid
or well you can wish we could say post covid
. So it's interesting. So it's worth keeping an
eye on but it's small and uh we'll have to
see when they make money. I'm curious to from
an economic and affordability standpoint when it comes to a
renting clothes, if it does seem more economical,
more affordable in the current environment, knowing that inflation
is rising, what's your take? Well, it's
interesting because they have three different subscription packages. Um
and I think for the real person who has to
have clothes every day they'll pay that 200 plus a
month. But what's interesting is that when you look
at their stats like 25% of their um lower-based subscribers
who are upping it and doing one more piece of
month. So I think right now people are flushed
with cash, their savings are being spent down but
they're making more money and they're feeling they want to
be out there. And so I I think there's
good support, you know, right here, both
economically and culturally for this uh for this company.
And I got to tell you as someone who's been
perusing the site recently, not just clothes but also
accessories and some very nice handbags that are alluring to
the, I just had to make that note.
Absolutely. Barbara Durant Ceo Investment Officer of B.
D. A. Capital Partners. Barbara, thank 00:08:54.610 --> you