WEBVTT 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:02.040 let's just start with new york here. Um What 00:00:02.040 --> 00:00:04.000 does your modeling tell you about case count. How 00:00:04.000 --> 00:00:07.230 bad does it get when it's a peak. Well 00:00:07.230 --> 00:00:10.140 , so, so there's an object upward trajectory now 00:00:10.140 --> 00:00:12.029 in in in new york. But it's very far 00:00:12.029 --> 00:00:13.619 from lockdown levels. So, you know, I 00:00:13.619 --> 00:00:17.260 don't think it's anything to to panic over in in 00:00:17.269 --> 00:00:19.920 in any shape or form that throughout the pandemic we've 00:00:19.920 --> 00:00:22.010 seen things go up and then they go down and 00:00:22.010 --> 00:00:24.070 you know, The key thing to look at is 00:00:24.070 --> 00:00:27.449 really what is the overall protection level and especially going 00:00:27.449 --> 00:00:29.399 into the fall. And this is where when I 00:00:29.399 --> 00:00:31.129 look at the US and we look at the US 00:00:31.129 --> 00:00:33.759 and New York and not in particular. But but 00:00:33.759 --> 00:00:36.140 then and and elsewhere in the us. It's quite 00:00:36.140 --> 00:00:39.630 a concerning picture we're seeing because we've seen booster uptake 00:00:39.640 --> 00:00:43.299 being very very low below 30%. Right. Also 00:00:43.299 --> 00:00:45.729 in the most vulnerable high risk groups. So that 00:00:45.729 --> 00:00:48.509 means going into the fold the overall protection level in 00:00:48.509 --> 00:00:51.719 the us will be around 20% only. Right? 00:00:51.729 --> 00:00:55.140 So we we basically don't have a big protective shield 00:00:55.140 --> 00:00:58.340 coming into the fall when temperatures decline. And COVID 00:00:58.350 --> 00:01:00.920 becomes a bigger risk again, Rasmus, do you 00:01:00.920 --> 00:01:06.239 think that will change if people were offered updated vaccines 00:01:06.250 --> 00:01:07.500 , the companies are working on them, they will 00:01:07.500 --> 00:01:11.519 become available once they become available. Do you think 00:01:11.519 --> 00:01:14.840 that narrative changes. I think that's a great point 00:01:14.849 --> 00:01:15.420 , guy because you know, in some ways it 00:01:15.420 --> 00:01:18.599 is kind of crazy. Right? We're vaccinating still 00:01:18.599 --> 00:01:22.109 vaccinating the world with the first generation of vaccines developed 00:01:22.109 --> 00:01:25.180 through the original strain that was detected two years ago 00:01:25.189 --> 00:01:26.219 . Right. And we know our micron and very 00:01:26.219 --> 00:01:30.079 variations on Comic con is a very very different virus 00:01:30.079 --> 00:01:32.629 . Right? So I would 100% agree with you 00:01:32.629 --> 00:01:34.230 that we do need a second generation of vaccines. 00:01:34.230 --> 00:01:37.000 And I think it's been quite interesting to see what 00:01:37.000 --> 00:01:40.609 we heard from Pfizer biontech recently. They were kind 00:01:40.609 --> 00:01:42.019 of been on defense a little bit. Do we 00:01:42.019 --> 00:01:42.859 need a new generation do we not? And now 00:01:42.859 --> 00:01:46.030 they're actually coming out saying yes we think we do 00:01:46.030 --> 00:01:49.189 need a new generation of vaccines. Moderna is also 00:01:49.189 --> 00:01:49.530 saying the same and you know, so you know 00:01:49.530 --> 00:01:53.040 50 years Tsk and many other providers are do we 00:01:53.049 --> 00:01:56.450 expect to come with a second generation and I think 00:01:56.450 --> 00:01:59.180 that will change the narrative but but that being said 00:01:59.180 --> 00:02:01.060 we also we need vaccines not only to protect against 00:02:01.060 --> 00:02:05.519 hospitalization. We also need to protect against transmissions and 00:02:05.519 --> 00:02:07.480 that's really the problem. Right? We don't have 00:02:07.489 --> 00:02:12.020 very good protection against transmissions and then immunity is raining 00:02:12.020 --> 00:02:15.310 really fast on on these vaccines and I don't think 00:02:15.319 --> 00:02:16.539 in the in the long run we can get everyone 00:02:16.539 --> 00:02:19.949 to you know be vaccinated once twice a year. 00:02:20.680 --> 00:02:23.780 I should point out that Pfizer biontech guide FDA emergency 00:02:23.780 --> 00:02:27.650 use authorization for boosters and 5 to 11 age groups 00:02:27.650 --> 00:02:29.680 . That's kind of the next to your point Rasmus 00:02:29.680 --> 00:02:31.080 on the boosters. Okay, how is this then 00:02:31.080 --> 00:02:34.669 playing out in china it seems like the rolling lockdowns 00:02:34.669 --> 00:02:36.400 are still a thing. But we're reopening parts of 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:37.889 the economy. Can you talk to me about the 00:02:37.889 --> 00:02:40.909 different hotspots there? Well, so, so china 00:02:40.919 --> 00:02:45.379 china's problem is that the protection level in the highest 00:02:45.389 --> 00:02:46.530 , you know, highest risk groups is very low 00:02:46.530 --> 00:02:47.990 , right? And therefore china, you know, 00:02:49.000 --> 00:02:51.430 either they they let that ramp and there there is 00:02:51.430 --> 00:02:54.289 a real risk of overflowing the hospitals or they keep 00:02:54.289 --> 00:02:57.949 this kind of very restrictive at least partly restrictive. 00:02:58.039 --> 00:03:00.469 So china is a kind of kind of an uneven 00:03:00.469 --> 00:03:01.569 situation. But the urban centers is where we have 00:03:01.580 --> 00:03:04.979 the, you know, the biggest risk and also 00:03:04.979 --> 00:03:07.650 the highest increase in in cases. Um the numbers 00:03:07.650 --> 00:03:09.219 coming out of china is, you know, we 00:03:09.219 --> 00:03:12.400 don't have a full as clear over us. We 00:03:12.400 --> 00:03:14.960 would like to but I would say it it continues 00:03:14.960 --> 00:03:16.800 to be a very high risk situation in in china 00:03:16.800 --> 00:03:20.520 simply because the protection level isn't there? The natural 00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:22.520 thing for china to do would really to be to 00:03:22.530 --> 00:03:24.400 begin with the second generation of vaccines and start rolling 00:03:24.400 --> 00:03:29.389 that out with in high risk population groups. But 00:03:29.389 --> 00:03:30.659 but if they don't do that, are we just 00:03:30.659 --> 00:03:35.080 going to continue to see searches in different cities, 00:03:35.090 --> 00:03:38.520 those cities getting locked down numbers being numbers being reduced 00:03:38.520 --> 00:03:43.120 because basically there's no social transmission and then it moves 00:03:43.120 --> 00:03:44.509 on to the next city. Is that in the 00:03:44.509 --> 00:03:46.819 model we can expect throughout the summer and into the 00:03:46.819 --> 00:03:50.689 winter for china if they don't start administering better vaccines 00:03:51.439 --> 00:03:53.060 . Yeah, I would say that that is the 00:03:53.060 --> 00:03:55.099 most realistic scenario. And another scenario could be that 00:03:55.099 --> 00:03:58.319 they get better treatments right? So there has been 00:03:58.319 --> 00:04:01.169 dealing with tax low with the fighter fighter treatment that 00:04:01.169 --> 00:04:04.409 could help some of that, you know. So 00:04:04.409 --> 00:04:06.860 if they had more of that, they could have 00:04:06.860 --> 00:04:13.099 a less restrictive policies throughout china and mitigating the disease 00:04:13.099 --> 00:04:15.090 a little bit like we've seen in some Western countries 00:04:15.090 --> 00:04:15.870 , right? We haven't seen the same level of 00:04:15.879 --> 00:04:18.120 fierce lockdowns as we're seeing in china. So I 00:04:18.120 --> 00:04:20.889 think there is there is a path for china that 00:04:20.889 --> 00:04:26.430 combines vaccines, treatments, testing and then mitigating the 00:04:26.430 --> 00:04:29.769 disease gradually, also building up some natural immunity throughout 00:04:29.769 --> 00:04:30.350 the country.