when everyone's gloomy, it pays to look at what
the bright side could be. Long story short,
there's been a lot of political chaos in the UK
. As you may have noticed, I am resigning
as leader of the Conservative party now, we are
past the worst of that, at least, fingers
crossed, we're past the worst of that, we've
got stability reintroduced and at the same time we've still
got relatively inexpensive asset prices and the pound is still
also very cheap compared to the dollar. For example
, there's no doubt that it's going to be a
tough winter at the same time. Everybody knows that
this is not news has been in the headlines pretty
much all year. So if things don't end up
being quite as bad as everyone expects, that means
there's opportunity for an awful lot of upside surprises in
april. We all come off the energy subsidies and
it turns out energy places are no longer as high
, that would be an upside. Or say the
mortgage market is more durable than we expect. That's
an upside. Employment is still holding up. If
we don't get a big increase in unemployment, then
any recession that we do face won't be anywhere near
as bad as it could be. Again, that's
a potential upside. So this habit is a good
habit to get into as an investor think about what
everyone is thinking and then think about why they might
be wrong in this case. Everybody's gloomy. So
you have to think about, well, what's the
optimistic case here