WEBVTT

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Crude oil rallying after Hamas's surprise attack on Israel,

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the threat of us and Iran entanglement growing, especially

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if action is taken against Tehran Socgen weighing in on

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the market implications, right? In this, in

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terms of risk premium, we see an increase of

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5 to$10 per barrel. The risk of escalation

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is real and while Iran may not nuclear weapons,

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it does have a stranglehold on the straits of H

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through which 20 to 30% of global crude oil flows

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joining us. Now, a man who knows a

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little something about a crude market, Stuart Wallace out

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of Dubai, Stuart, you and the team,

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as you look at things right now, have you

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changed your expectations on crude supply coming out of the

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region? Not so far? I mean, it

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is absolutely true to say they have a stranglehold over

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Horn moves. But you know, with the proviso

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that no one has ever successfully managed to take hor

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moves down for any length of time. So you

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can definitely make life more difficult. But I would

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also argue in the long term, it's not necessarily

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the interests of Iran to do that. I mean

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, for one thing, just to remind to everyone

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, you've got the US fifth fleet sitting up in

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Manama, not that far away. Is that really

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sort of a bear you want to prod, I

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think the second leg of it, which is tougher

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sanctions, you know, or at least a more

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careful control of what's coming out of Iran. You

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know, there is, that certainly is a possibility

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and at a time when is still constraining supply,

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that would clearly have a more immediate impact on the

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market. So I think it's those two factors,

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but of the two of them, the more likely

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approach, at least for now seems to be on

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the sanctions. But again, we'll watch and wait

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, Stuart how much crude has been coming out of

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Iran over the last year or so. And has

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the administration been turning a blind eye to that?

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Yes, I wouldn't necessarily as a blind eye,

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but yes, it is up sharply and it's definitely

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been a big factor in the market. I think

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one of your previous guests said it's something in the

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order of about 50 per cent over the last 12

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months higher. And the expectation is that would continue

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to go higher. Now, clearly, the calculus

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has changed in the last few days. And we're

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really watching Washington to see how they're going to react

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to this again, that will take several weeks or

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several months to play out at the same time.

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You've got this big calculation to make about how then

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in turn, does Opec react Saudi Arabia in particular

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? It's got quite a great deal of spare capacity

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right now, but it's not quite clear what the

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appetite in Riyadh is at the moment in a scenario

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where Iran is constrained, does Riyadh then reopen the

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figures? It's very hard to gauge today. What

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that reaction might be, Stuart. Thank you,

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sir.