Well, joining me now to talk about the major
indexes, what we should make of the overall stock
market is will Ryan c of granite shares. Well
, it's great to have you on the show today
, certainly see a lot of red on on the
screen and that's in the wake of the strong jobs
report. But how are you recommending investors perhaps position
themselves in this current market and economy that is still
a bit uncertain. It's very, very uncertain.
But I think that the trends that we've seen since
the beginning of the year, I think they could
still have some legs here because, you know,
this is really to me all about the narrative of
inflation coming down. You know, interest rate expectations
falling as well. And lastly, the earnings that
everybody was pretty pessimistic about coming into the beginning of
this year have held up I think a lot better
than expected. So so far. So. Good
. Really. And that's really been reflected in the
, in the market that we've seen so far here
today. So here's the question. I think people
might be a bit confused. They see the stock
market down, they expect the Fed will continue to
raise rates. Are we still expecting? Is the
market still pricing in a rate cut though from the
Fed by the end of the year. And you
and I know how that would play out. I
mean, I'm sure the stock market would rip Exactly
. So absolutely, it's markets pricing in rate cuts
or rate cuts potentially in the second half of this
year. And even I think in the next potential
rate hike that the market believes will be 25 basis
points next month. I think there's even some question
mark over whether that will happen. Of course,
there was nothing specific that Chairman Powell mentioned in his
pro his press conference that would suggest that there was
anything a surprise I guess in in um in that
, but I think the narrative around aggressive rate hikes
and even today in the jobs report. Yes,
it's a big number, but a lot of that
is seasonal and revisions to numbers from last year.
Um If you think if you look at the economy
net net were flat in terms of full time jobs
created last year, a lot of what we were
seeing today, those are part time jobs, particularly
things like restaurants and bars. So it's not exactly
the picture that you might see as if you just
looked at the headline number. Mhm. What does
this mean for the dollar, will, what does
it mean for international investments that are impacted by the
dollar and even commodities like gold? I think the
dollar is going to resume the trend that it has
been on really since about the middle of last year
, which is the dollar peak, the dollar will
be easing. And that again, ties in with
expectations around inflation itself falling. Um And, you
know, the Federal Reserve getting to their terminal rate
, you know, sooner rather than later and indeed
, obviously if there are cuts um in the latter
half of this year, so it's positive for gold
, certainly positive for the commodity market. Um and
any buyers, consumers of commodities around the world that
are paying for those assets in dollars? Well,
it is interesting, I want to run through the
numbers on the week will, even though we were
down today, um we've seen pretty good gains throughout
2023 even a positive week as well. I see
the S and P adding 1.6%. The NASDAQ continuing
to outperform as it has this year after. Well
, underperforming last year with the NASDAQ 3.3% this week
. The dow, I guess dipping just about 2/10
of a percent, but still holding up fairly well
in the fifth straight week percentage gains for the NASDAQ
the best run that we've seen since november of 2021
. Can the momentum continue? I think, I
think yes. Um It's a short answer, I
do think that we are in a period where we're
slowing down, but for the, for the short
to medium term again, I don't see the the
catalyst, the big catalyst that people looking for um
for this to stop, you know, earnings have
been good and I think what what shows even a
sign of strength is where companies like Apple, which
is, you know, an absolute bellwether of the
large cap tech space, even though they actually missed
earnings, the stock was still received positively and obviously
traded up today. Um, so I think it
shows that there's a lot of resilience that these companies
, which are such a big part of the market
still, you know, we're so badly beaten up
last year. And while performances is going to be
mixed, the outlooks, mixed people are prepared to
come in and buy these stocks for the longer term
. Will Ryan C of granite shares, joining us
on a mixed day for the market next week as
well. But still some strength overall for the NASDAQ
will thank you.