WEBVTT 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:04.419 how do we constructively generate a measured alert given our 00:00:04.419 --> 00:00:08.509 fears? Well, we have been talking for awhile 00:00:08.509 --> 00:00:11.320 about the potential of more variants coming. We've said 00:00:11.320 --> 00:00:14.109 that those variants could well form in places that are 00:00:14.109 --> 00:00:17.449 under vaccinated and that's what we may be dealing with 00:00:17.460 --> 00:00:21.190 . This particular variant has a number of concerning mutations 00:00:21.190 --> 00:00:23.949 that resemble some of the other variants that we had 00:00:24.239 --> 00:00:27.219 . None of those variants totally escaped the vaccine. 00:00:27.219 --> 00:00:30.059 None of them were like our worst nightmare come true 00:00:30.339 --> 00:00:32.700 . And we have to go through the process of 00:00:32.700 --> 00:00:36.630 studying this variant while we continue to be vigilant and 00:00:36.630 --> 00:00:39.969 take precautions that we need to take to prevent the 00:00:39.969 --> 00:00:42.490 spread of infections. You know, this may well 00:00:42.490 --> 00:00:46.070 not be as dangerous as other variants, but it 00:00:46.070 --> 00:00:50.289 may be um, Have the capacity to infect people 00:00:50.289 --> 00:00:52.149 a little more who were vaccinated. We're just gonna 00:00:52.149 --> 00:00:54.350 have to find out what will this do to the 00:00:54.350 --> 00:00:57.140 unvaccinated. I noticed this morning, one of the 00:00:57.140 --> 00:01:02.340 statistics was the unvaccinated 13 times likely to die than 00:01:02.340 --> 00:01:03.489 the vaccinated. Do you presume? And you've been 00:01:03.489 --> 00:01:07.530 in the trenches on this. Do you presume we 00:01:07.530 --> 00:01:11.079 will see a trend to vaccination? You know, 00:01:11.079 --> 00:01:15.379 it's uh, it's interesting people who are unvaccinated, 00:01:15.390 --> 00:01:18.590 um, tend to get vaccinated when they perceive more 00:01:18.590 --> 00:01:19.689 of a risk to themselves. And so you saw 00:01:19.689 --> 00:01:23.030 with the delta searches in the south. Suddenly more 00:01:23.030 --> 00:01:25.590 people in the south were getting vaccinated, but it 00:01:25.590 --> 00:01:27.390 may take things actually getting worse before more people get 00:01:27.390 --> 00:01:30.879 vaccinated in the meantime this weekend, I heard people 00:01:30.879 --> 00:01:33.799 saying, well, if there's another variant coming, 00:01:33.799 --> 00:01:36.659 maybe I shouldn't get vaccinated against the current vaccine. 00:01:36.739 --> 00:01:40.219 That's obviously the wrong way to think more people are 00:01:40.219 --> 00:01:42.769 vaccinated. It's overwhelmingly likely the more protected that they'll 00:01:42.780 --> 00:01:49.340 be and that will also protect the entire area from 00:01:49.349 --> 00:01:52.829 from a variant that is a little bit more transmissible 00:01:52.840 --> 00:01:55.310 . Doctor help us understand the history of a virus 00:01:55.310 --> 00:01:57.819 like this one over time, shouldn't we expect this 00:01:57.819 --> 00:02:00.950 to become a more transmissible and be less severe. 00:02:00.959 --> 00:02:04.640 Isn't that something we should be expected to happen Over 00:02:04.640 --> 00:02:07.150 time? But how much time? It may not 00:02:07.159 --> 00:02:09.259 be over this period of essentially months that we've had 00:02:09.259 --> 00:02:13.990 with the virus a couple of years versus decades. 00:02:14.000 --> 00:02:16.949 So there was a coronavirus pandemic that apparently may have 00:02:16.949 --> 00:02:20.139 happened at the end of the 19th century that now 00:02:20.139 --> 00:02:22.860 maybe our common cold, but you know, that's 00:02:22.860 --> 00:02:24.349 not a lot of solace to the people who are 00:02:24.360 --> 00:02:29.050 experiencing it and getting really sick back then so it 00:02:29.050 --> 00:02:30.659 could happen. But it may take some time for 00:02:30.659 --> 00:02:34.770 really to become mild. I think right now the 00:02:34.770 --> 00:02:38.449 virus is just trying to, you know, spread 00:02:38.460 --> 00:02:40.129 and some of these mutations make it more likely to 00:02:40.129 --> 00:02:44.259 spread. Some of the mutations may you know, 00:02:44.639 --> 00:02:46.050 happen to make it more severe. We're gonna have 00:02:46.050 --> 00:02:50.120 to figure that out and be smart about the kinds 00:02:50.120 --> 00:02:52.460 of precautions that we take. You know, I 00:02:52.460 --> 00:02:55.870 think um really being careful about travelers make sense in 00:02:55.870 --> 00:02:59.909 the sense of testing and vaccination. I'm not sure 00:02:59.909 --> 00:03:00.960 the kind of travel bans we've seen make a lot 00:03:00.960 --> 00:03:04.800 of sense given how far the experience probably already spread 00:03:04.810 --> 00:03:06.849 . Doctor is clearly far too early for someone like 00:03:06.849 --> 00:03:07.990 you to draw conclusions. I just wonder how much 00:03:07.990 --> 00:03:09.960 time you would need is a matter of a couple 00:03:09.960 --> 00:03:13.379 of weeks several. You need a month of data 00:03:13.379 --> 00:03:14.960 , what would you need? How much time? 00:03:15.039 --> 00:03:17.060 I think we're going to start seeing, it's gonna 00:03:17.060 --> 00:03:20.050 be a little bit of a, you know, 00:03:20.439 --> 00:03:23.120 Buckle your seatbelts moment because we're going to see all 00:03:23.120 --> 00:03:27.560 kinds of individual stories before the picture really emerges. 00:03:27.569 --> 00:03:31.050 I based on uh the studies that have been launched 00:03:31.060 --> 00:03:34.430 , I would expect 2-3 weeks for a much more 00:03:34.430 --> 00:03:38.159 clear picture, but I wouldn't panic over anyone headline 00:03:38.639 --> 00:03:42.240 Doctor Sharfstein, we talk a lot about natural immunity 00:03:42.250 --> 00:03:45.719 when, when having the conversation about vaccinations as well 00:03:45.719 --> 00:03:46.819 . Is there a difference in response to a variant 00:03:46.819 --> 00:03:50.909 between someone who's been immunized with vaccine and someone who 00:03:50.909 --> 00:03:53.849 has had covid. Therefore, quote unquote natural immunity 00:03:54.340 --> 00:03:59.900 . Well, it may depend on who which variant 00:03:59.909 --> 00:04:01.919 people got sick to in the first place. So 00:04:01.930 --> 00:04:06.389 immunologically you can kind of put these different variants on 00:04:06.389 --> 00:04:08.919 a tree and you know, it turned out the 00:04:08.919 --> 00:04:11.629 original virus was pretty close to Delta, which is 00:04:11.629 --> 00:04:15.300 why the vaccines made for the original virus worked pretty 00:04:15.300 --> 00:04:17.420 well for Delta. Some of the other variants actually 00:04:17.430 --> 00:04:20.899 were very different from the original virus and the vaccine 00:04:20.899 --> 00:04:24.589 didn't work so well those got out competed by Delta 00:04:24.600 --> 00:04:27.129 . This looks more like that. So it depends 00:04:27.129 --> 00:04:29.550 , I think a bit on which virus, if 00:04:29.560 --> 00:04:31.250 if somebody actually had one of those earlier variants, 00:04:31.250 --> 00:04:33.699 there might be more protection than someone who had DELTA 00:04:33.699 --> 00:04:36.250 or the original virus or the vaccine.