WEBVTT 00:00:00.009 --> 00:00:02.930 Look, we sort of continue to run on fumes 00:00:02.940 --> 00:00:04.980 here and the fumes reality for you when it comes 00:00:04.988 --> 00:00:07.538 to A I or in indeed big tech being a 00:00:07.549 --> 00:00:10.300 safe harbor, but also a growth play as well 00:00:11.460 --> 00:00:12.310 . Yeah. Well, you know, I'm, 00:00:12.319 --> 00:00:15.769 I'm always very excited about the technology sector even when 00:00:15.778 --> 00:00:18.208 it was tanking last year. I kept saying how 00:00:18.219 --> 00:00:20.269 , what a great opportunity it is, especially if 00:00:20.280 --> 00:00:22.420 you're in it for the longer term. Of course 00:00:22.429 --> 00:00:24.989 , uh because the uh day to day swings can 00:00:25.000 --> 00:00:27.519 be a little daunting, but of course, you 00:00:27.530 --> 00:00:30.068 know, uh technology is the way of the world 00:00:30.079 --> 00:00:32.889 and uh there's more of it coming, especially with 00:00:32.899 --> 00:00:36.039 A I where we're gonna have another transformation of our 00:00:36.048 --> 00:00:38.848 lives and, and the entire world. So it 00:00:38.859 --> 00:00:42.609 is very exciting indeed. Just have to have a 00:00:42.618 --> 00:00:46.649 little bit more information. There's a lot of unknowns 00:00:46.719 --> 00:00:48.959 at this time. There are and it means therefore 00:00:48.969 --> 00:00:52.090 for some like cities saying this has gone too far 00:00:52.228 --> 00:00:54.950 , we're likely to now see a downward trajectory perhaps 00:00:54.959 --> 00:00:59.529 as these A I artificial intelligence headlines become steeped within 00:00:59.539 --> 00:01:00.929 business models. Do you think we've run up too 00:01:00.939 --> 00:01:04.579 far for what ultimately gets painted as the clear picture 00:01:04.588 --> 00:01:08.198 of what A I does to these companies. Well 00:01:08.209 --> 00:01:11.338 , you know, when it comes to buying stocks 00:01:11.349 --> 00:01:14.579 , the, the math has to rule and clearly 00:01:14.588 --> 00:01:15.659 the valuations. I'm sorry, the, uh, 00:01:15.668 --> 00:01:19.459 earnings are just not living up to the valuations uh 00:01:19.469 --> 00:01:22.549 at this time. And, uh, unfortunately, 00:01:22.558 --> 00:01:23.959 uh, that's what counts when you're buying stocks. 00:01:23.969 --> 00:01:26.769 And, uh, so yes, there's a little 00:01:26.778 --> 00:01:30.599 bit too much excitement going on here. And uh 00:01:30.609 --> 00:01:32.808 uh the, and that will account for a great 00:01:32.819 --> 00:01:36.058 deal of ups and downs and, and significant volatility 00:01:36.069 --> 00:01:38.734 . I mean, when you have eye popping returns 00:01:38.745 --> 00:01:42.165 of over 100% year to date and then you look 00:01:42.174 --> 00:01:46.394 at last year and down 50% those are pretty big 00:01:46.403 --> 00:01:48.915 swings. And an investor would have to have pretty 00:01:48.924 --> 00:01:51.454 strong stomach lining to be able to put up with 00:01:51.463 --> 00:01:53.844 that. I mean, I'm just looking at the 00:01:53.855 --> 00:01:57.823 forward looking the price to forward earnings on apple currently 00:01:57.834 --> 00:02:00.105 trading it in excess of 30 times. This is 00:02:00.114 --> 00:02:01.334 a company that's going to post actually a decline in 00:02:01.344 --> 00:02:06.939 revenue for this fiscal year is though a company that 00:02:06.948 --> 00:02:08.409 has just got that share market waiting, can you 00:02:08.419 --> 00:02:10.349 fight against what have been sort of, well, 00:02:10.360 --> 00:02:14.610 many are turning them sort of the super seven or 00:02:14.618 --> 00:02:16.889 the magnificent seven key stocks that have just driven the 00:02:16.899 --> 00:02:20.008 out performance across the S and P. And indeed 00:02:20.020 --> 00:02:22.788 , of course, the NASDAQ this year. Well 00:02:22.800 --> 00:02:23.860 , we're still in the business of meeting clients long 00:02:23.868 --> 00:02:25.669 term goals. So we tend to take a little 00:02:25.679 --> 00:02:30.389 more prudent approach and, and maybe buy companies that 00:02:30.409 --> 00:02:32.838 engage in A I and all of the excitement, 00:02:32.849 --> 00:02:37.349 but not necessarily depend solely on that revenue. They 00:02:37.360 --> 00:02:39.229 have to be more diversified and have earnings and revenue 00:02:39.240 --> 00:02:43.360 from other sources as well. I think that's probably 00:02:43.368 --> 00:02:46.550 the most prudent way to enter this arena. Um 00:02:46.580 --> 00:02:49.258 But for the most part, we're going to be 00:02:49.270 --> 00:02:52.639 a bit more wait and see because we still quite 00:02:52.649 --> 00:02:53.330 frankly don't know the good, the bad and the 00:02:53.338 --> 00:02:55.969 ugly of what A I has to give to us 00:02:55.979 --> 00:02:59.580 or bring to us in the next few years. 00:02:59.588 --> 00:03:00.229 And what therefore the good, the bad, the 00:03:00.240 --> 00:03:02.368 ugly when it comes to macro picture as well. 00:03:02.379 --> 00:03:05.899 Today, we see services weakening overall. We're worried 00:03:05.909 --> 00:03:07.639 about whether the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates further actually 00:03:07.649 --> 00:03:10.169 is forced to start cutting them. How does that 00:03:10.389 --> 00:03:14.808 guide you as to whether technology is a sector is 00:03:14.819 --> 00:03:16.520 a place you want to be? Well, but 00:03:16.528 --> 00:03:20.240 I do believe that the fed will pause uh just 00:03:20.250 --> 00:03:23.929 as uh Mr Powell indicated and I don't believe there 00:03:23.939 --> 00:03:25.219 will be any rate cuts, at least not any 00:03:25.229 --> 00:03:29.189 time soon and certainly not this year. Uh But 00:03:29.199 --> 00:03:30.599 technology is a sector that is here to stay. 00:03:30.610 --> 00:03:34.080 I mean, this is clearly something that uh we 00:03:34.088 --> 00:03:36.868 live with and it is involved in every aspect of 00:03:36.879 --> 00:03:38.949 our lives. So it's not going anywhere and in 00:03:38.960 --> 00:03:43.639 fact, it's going to evolve even more and faster 00:03:43.649 --> 00:03:46.808 . So, uh it certainly is the longer term 00:03:46.819 --> 00:03:50.710 outlook, but again, longer term is the emphasis 00:03:50.719 --> 00:03:53.469 . Uh because the the day to day swings can 00:03:53.479 --> 00:03:57.129 be extremely volatile and it's not for the faint at 00:03:57.139 --> 00:03:59.139 heart, you do have to have it in a 00:03:59.149 --> 00:04:02.088 longer term perspective and across asset. Are you thinking 00:04:02.099 --> 00:04:06.210 long or getting into technology stocks that of course, 00:04:06.219 --> 00:04:09.849 are diversified or is it more about the bond market 00:04:09.860 --> 00:04:12.808 , different parts of their overall capital structure? Where 00:04:12.819 --> 00:04:14.830 do you think is the right place to be allocating 00:04:14.838 --> 00:04:16.410 at this moment? Well, for the longer term 00:04:16.420 --> 00:04:18.910 , certainly technology stocks are, are the, the 00:04:18.920 --> 00:04:23.389 entire tech sector will be terrific. Uh However, 00:04:23.399 --> 00:04:26.170 uh shorter term, we are taking a much more 00:04:26.178 --> 00:04:28.829 defensive approach and, and going on the uh the 00:04:28.838 --> 00:04:30.160 fixed income side or the, the note, the 00:04:30.170 --> 00:04:33.269 structured note side. Uh And I think that that 00:04:33.278 --> 00:04:35.970 can create a little bit of an offset for all 00:04:35.980 --> 00:04:39.259 of that up and down the daily, up and 00:04:39.269 --> 00:04:42.250 down and, and uh the crazes and then the 00:04:42.259 --> 00:04:46.028 , the downfalls and to that point, this is 00:04:46.040 --> 00:04:47.559 a global narrative. We've seen a I sort of 00:04:47.569 --> 00:04:50.869 take wind whether it's in Asian names or whether it's 00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:53.709 being traded here in the United States, even some 00:04:53.720 --> 00:04:55.869 European ship stocks getting caught up in it. But 00:04:56.290 --> 00:04:59.149 do you allocate primarily to the United States, Nancy 00:04:59.160 --> 00:05:01.730 ? Do you think about diversification globally? Um at 00:05:01.738 --> 00:05:04.600 this time, we have stuck mostly with us. 00:05:04.608 --> 00:05:08.819 Uh We have not ventured into outside of the US 00:05:08.829 --> 00:05:11.899 too much as of yet. Uh I don't believe 00:05:11.910 --> 00:05:15.519 the valuations there are going to be as profitable as 00:05:15.528 --> 00:05:18.040 US. Uh There's, there's many, many more 00:05:18.048 --> 00:05:20.944 problems outside the US, what we have here. 00:05:21.105 --> 00:05:25.463 And uh also the, the currency exchange plays a 00:05:25.475 --> 00:05:27.903 very big part of it still, unfortunately. And 00:05:27.915 --> 00:05:30.605 , and when the dollar is this still this strong 00:05:30.744 --> 00:05:33.644 , it's very hard to uh bring alpha into the 00:05:33.653 --> 00:05:36.475 portfolio of investors. How many of your private wealth 00:05:36.483 --> 00:05:40.899 clients still interested in crypto? Well, all of 00:05:40.910 --> 00:05:44.040 them are, they all are, they all ask 00:05:44.048 --> 00:05:46.119 questions about it. But I'm fascinated by how little 00:05:46.129 --> 00:05:49.170 they actually know about it. It's, it's fascinating 00:05:49.238 --> 00:05:53.040 . Um, and, and I think every new 00:05:53.048 --> 00:05:56.420 craze or, or every new headline Du Jour uh 00:05:56.428 --> 00:06:00.858 , really indicates that how little people actually know about 00:06:00.939 --> 00:06:03.660 what everybody's jumping into and, and, and that's 00:06:03.670 --> 00:06:05.980 pretty fearful, in my opinion. We have to 00:06:05.988 --> 00:06:08.720 be very fearful when that happens.